Because I have MY FINGER ON THE PULSE OF THE HOBBY, I am introducing my own projections for Topps Project 2020 releases. Yes, I know the Project 2020 craze ended a couple of months ago, the print runs have stabilized, and CRT Sports Cards already provides excellent projections. But I’ve been semi-obsessed with Project 2020 for awhile and part of that has been trying to come up with a good formula for projecting print runs. And now that the demand has stabilized and everyone already knows generally where the numbers are going to land anyway, my formula is working kind of decently! Projections are of questionable value at this stage of the set’s run, but I still enjoy my little game, and figured I might as well start sharing the projections publicly in case anyone else finds it interesting or a tiny bit useful.
About My Projections
For all cards that don’t include Mike Trout, Derek Jeter, or Ben Baller, my formula is based entirely on these five factors (with all data from Trout, Jeter, and Baller cards removed):
- The average PR of the last 20 cards
- The average effect that the player has had on PRs
- The average effect that the artist has had on PRs
- The average effect that the release day of the week has had on cards
- A market adjustment explained below
For example, one of the cards available as I write is #256 Willie Mays by Mister Cartoon. The last 20 cards have an average run of 2,854, while I peg Mays as having an expected 88% change to that average and Cartoon with an expected 113% effect. Those pretty much cancel each other out, together making a projected effect of 101% of the last 20 average, or 2,868. I estimate that cards released on Mondays have sold an average of 95% of the rolling 20 card average, which knocks the projection down to 2,737.
Lastly, I make a market adjustment based on how the last 20 cards have performed relative to the 20 cards that came before them. The goal here is to try to judge if the market is generally buying more or fewer cards at the moment. For #256 Mays/Cartoon, the last 20 cards sold an average of 90% less than the 20 cards before them, which gives us a final projection of 2,463.
I’ve been using something like that for awhile. Earlier projections were a little erratic, but with more history to draw from and more stability in the print runs, the formula has had a good stretch lately. As of September 21, the formula has been off by an average of 412 for the last 20 (non-Trout/Jeter/Baller) cards,.
Edit October 1, 2020: I had not been making projections for Trout/Jeter/Baller (TJB) cards, which is why you will see holes in the checklist below, but starting with #267 Jeter/Vides, I will post projections for all cards. I’m using a totally different method for TJB cards and I have less confidence in the projections compared to others. The basic way that I will project TJB cards is to look at how the recent-ish particular player or artist print runs have landed compared to their respective previous 20 non-TJB cards. For example, at the time #267 Jeter/Vides was available, Jeter’s previous six cards all printed between 124% – 190% of the previous 20 non-TJB cards. Because Vides cards typically have lower print runs, I projected that #267 would print 124% of the previous 20 card average, or 2,696 x 1.24 = 3,360.
You can find my daily-updated projections on top of the “sidebar,” the location of which might depend on what type of a device you are on. (If you don’t see it to the right of this post, try scrolling to the bottom of the page.) I’ll also occasionally update the below chart to keep track of how the projections compared to actual print runs.
Projections vs. Actual PR
card my proj PR diff 231 Griffey/Siff 4144 4533 389 232 Brett/Vides 2976 2243 733 233 Rivera/Naturel 3014 1902 1112 234 McGwire/Saladeen 3411 2793 618 236 Ryan/Taylor 3007 3186 179 237 Gwynn/Rochester 2965 2196 769 238 Thomas/Cartoon 3416 2871 545 239 Clemente/Beck 3658 3001 657 240 Mattingly/JK5 3565 3547 18 241 Ripken/Grotesk 2984 2448 536 242 Rivera/Thiele 2986 3196 210 243 Ichiro/Fucci 2776 2379 397 244 Mays/Shore 2633 2440 193 245 Ryan/Ermsy 3017 3158 141 246 Williams/Vides 2491 2150 341 248 Henderson/Efdot 3042 3299 257 card my proj PR diff 250 Koufax/Jamieson 3227 2959 268 252 Ichiro/Siff 2731 2961 230 253 Robinson/Saladeen 2751 3159 408 254 Brett/Fucci 2054 2300 246 255 Mattingly/Taylor 2476 2847 301 256 Mays/Cartoon 2463 2803 340 257 Griffey/Naturel 3330 2811 519 258 Gooden/JK5 2477 2415 62 259 Thomas/Oldmanalan 2704 2776 72 261 Gwynn/Thiele 2502 2422 80 262 Wms/Rochester 2462 2219 243 263 Ryan/Beck 2617 2649 32 264 McGwire/Don C 2530 2576 46 265 Rivera/Grotesk 2139 1959 180 266 Clemente/Efdot 2581 2692 111 267 Jeter/Vides 3360 3561 201 268 Thomas/Chang 2393 2491 98 269 Ripken/Jamieson 3139 3339 200 card my proj PR diff 270 Mattingly/Ermsy 3125 3536 411 271 Ichiro/Cartoon 2809 3834 1034 272 Brett/Baller 4780 4245 535 273 Henderson/Salad. 2718 2812 94 274 Koufax/Siff 2718 2295 423 275 Mays/Naturel 2401 2109 292 276 McGwire/Taylor 2413 1902 511 277 Griffey/JK5 2996 3355 359 278 Mattingly/Don C 2804 2715 89 279 Gibson/Fucci 2254 1898 356 280 Ichiro/Vides 2815 2046 769 281 Robinson/Shore 2671 2703 32 282 Trout/Beck 6678 7656 978 283 McGwire/Rochester 2241 1800 441 284 Gooden/Oldmanalan 2266 1995 271 285 Thomas/Grotesk 2018 1802 216 286 Brett/Thiele 2030 2272 242 287 Rivera/Efdot 2406 3039 633 288 Mays/Ermsy 2418 3018 600 289 Jeter/Jamieson 4625 4155 470 card my proj PR diff 290 Gooden/Siff 2596 2534 62 291 Clemente/Baller 5115 4975 140 292 Ripken/Chang 2427 2392 35 293 Williams/Taylor 2095 1974 121 294 Henderson/Fucci 2036 2194 158 295 Gibson/Naturel 1699 1774 75 296 Gwynn/Saladeen 2066 2334 268 297 Thomas/Vides 1875 1858 17 298 Koufax/Cartoon 2200 2279 79 299 Robinson/JK5 2323 2613 290 300 Griffey/Ermsy 2817 4762 1945 card my proj PR diff 301 Ryan/Don C 2321 2689 368 302 Trout/Oldmanalan 5758 6810 1052 303 Ripken/Shore 2073 2734 661 304 Robinson/Thiele 2231 3230 999 305 Henderson/Grotesk 2202 2149 53 306 Mattingly/Roch. 2396 2239 157 307 Ichiro/Beck 2836 2516 320 308 Jeter/Fucci 3182 3139 43 309 Mays/Baller 4722 4568 154 310 McGwire/Chang 2620 1942 678 311 Rivera/Siff 2591 2129 462 312 Gibson/Taylor 2224 1821 403 313 Brett/Jamieson 2595 2495 100 314 Ryan/Cartoon 2720 2439 281 315 Williams/Naturel 2050 1734 316 316 Thomas/Ermsy 2571 2647 76 317 Griffey/Efdot 3485 3562 77 318 Gwynn/JK5 2648 2498 150 319 Ichiro/Thiele 2603 2549 54 320 Koufax/Taylor 2353 1993 360 card my proj PR diff 321 Robinson/Roch. 2426 2232 194 322 Ripken/Vides 2281 1846 435 323 Gibson/Oldmanalan 2115 1546 569 324 Gooden/Saladeen 2520 1692 828 325 Henderson/Shore 2269 2584 315 326 Trout/Siff 6088 8047 1959 327 Williams/Cartoon 2540 2588 48 328 Griffey/Grotesk 2791 2745 46 329 Ryan/Baller 4818 3871 947 330 Gwynn/Fucci 2004 1947 57 331 Thomas/Thiele 2162 2481 319 332 Mays/Beck 2162 2087 75 333 Mattingly/Chang 2171 2259 88 334 Gibson/Efdot 2117 1882 235 335 Jeter/Naturel 2973 2893 80 336 Clemente/Jamieson 2597 2744 147 337 Brett/JK5 2339 2067 272 338 McGwire/Vides 2190 1631 559 339 Robinson/Ermsy 2656 3057 401 340 Rivera/Saladeen 2281 1928 353 card my proj PR diff 341 Clemente/Don C 2043 2489 446 342 Ichiro/Oldmanalan 2236 3383 1147 343 Gooden/Thiele 1830 1980 150 344 Brett/Rochester 1657 1705 48 345 Williams/Siff 2060 1923 137 346 Mays/Grotesk 1879 1753 126 As of September 21st, here are the factors I have for players, artists, and release days (these factors will keep changing with print run announcements):
(I’ve done a bunch of boring adjustments to come up with those numbers that I could tell you more about if you’re interested but I’m already putting myself to sleep.)
Leave a Reply