Updated March 13, 2021
With the release of 2020-21 Upper Deck Series 1 behind us and the release of Series 2 closing in soon, I have taken a deep dive into the various configurations from which collectors can choose. Here are the basics of what to expect in the most common configs for either series:
- hobby box: 24 packs, 8 cards per pack, 192 cards total
exclusives: there’s a BUNCH, including High Gloss, Clear Cut, French, Debut Dates, Worldwide, Predominant, Signature Sensations, Dazzlers pink, and many more (most or all will also be available on epack) - retail box: 24 packs, 8 cards per pack, 192 cards total
exclusives: Dazzlers pink - blaster box: 8 packs, 7 cards per pack, 57 cards total
exclusives: Jumbo Young Guns, Dazzlers Green in select blasters - mega box: 10 packs, 8 cards per pack, 83 cards total
exclusives: three card pack of ’94-’95 Rookie Tribute Die Cuts (select boxes), Team Triples (Target Exclusive), Team Triples Gold (Target Exclusive), Dazzlers pink - fat pack box: 18 packs, 26 cards per pack, 468 cards total
exclusives: Dazzlers orange - tin: 9 packs, 8 cards per pack, 75 cards total
exclusives: O-Pee-Chee Glossy Rookies, Dazzlers orange
Click here to shop 2020-21 Upper Deck boxes on eBay
In the below table, I have attempted to compare the cost of different types of cards in the different configurations at the prices that I am seeing on November 18th. (Shipping is not taken into account.) The first few rows simply show the price (US$), the number of cards in a box, and the cost broken down per card. Under the “expected” headings is the amount of each type of card you can expect to pull in a perfectly average box. Under the “$/per” headings is the amount of money you’d have to spend to expect to land exactly one copy of that type of card in a perfectly average box or boxes.
For example, for every $20 you spend on a $120 hobby box, you can expect one Young Guns, compared to expecting one Young Guns for every $12 you spend on a $70 retail box. Prices will fluctuate over time, so…
My takaways:
- To justify a hobby box at the moment, the hobby exclusive cards need to be a major draw for you since you’ll be spending a lot of extra dough per-card. If my math is correct (which is no sure thing), you can expect around eight hobby exclusives per box.
- If the hobby exclusives aren’t essential for you, there is a lot of relative value in a retail box right now, including the best or close to the best return per dollar on Young Guns, Canvas, and Canvas Young Guns.
- If you can find a blaster for $20, that is the most cost effective way to hunt Young Guns that I’m seeing at the moment.
- If your main goal is building a base set, fat packs might be the way to go.
- You might not want to chase the Alexis Lafrenière draft SP in the tins. It falls 1:32,400 packs, so you’d expect to hit one for every $121,500 spent.
Which cards are you looking for and what configuration gives you the best return for your buck? And what type of box is the most fun for you to open?
I am not sure blaster boxes are the way to go anymore. Blasters used to have 8 packs per box; now they have 7, and the odds of pulling a Young Guns card from a blaster box is 1:4.
I purchased 3 blaster boxes last week. One box had one YG. The other two boxes had two YGs.
And like you said, fat packs are only really good for base cards, assuming that the collation is normal.
Unfortunately, the collation was so terrible that I fell way short of a base set after opening 3 blasters and 6 fat packs, which had over 300 base cards combined.
Thanks for stopping by Sal. A $20 blaster is still the best deal I’m seeing as far as Young Guns go, but, yeah, there is now that risk of only getting one YG in a blaster instead of two. But if you bought four blasters, you’d expect seven YGs, as opposed to six in one retail box that would cost close to the same. I still personally lean towards a retail box at the moment, I guess because I’d prefer the guaranteed six YGs as opposed to not being sure how many YGs you’ll get out of the blasters, plus there’s a little more Canvases in retail vs. blaster.
Too bad you were still short of the base set – I’ve got 166 base cards available if you want to talk trade!
Hey, this is great work, I usually do this myself for making decisions on what to buy.
Much appreciative of the work.
Thanks so much Lou, always nice to hear I’m not just talking to myself here!